Saturday, 29 July 2017

Un venezolano sobre Rusia y sus medios (I)


Me he interesado en Rusia desde que era un chico. Mi interés tiene un origen cultural: me fascina la literatura clásica rusa, me encanta el idioma ruso y me ha parecido muy interesante aprender sobre una región tan diferente de Venezuela, mi país. Al contrario que la gran mayoría de los venezolanos que se interesó por Rusia a partir de los ochenta, jamás tuve simpatías por los sistemas políticos que han prevalecido allí.

Tengo amigos rusos. Estos viven en Rusia y fuera de ella. He ido al país y he tratado de entenderlo en la medida de lo posible. 

Hoy leo con interés y tristeza pero sin un atisbo de sorpresa un artículo de la ONG Levada. El artículo haba sobre dónde en los rusos sus noticias.

Levada, como muchas otras ONGs, está en la mira de las autoridades rusas, que obligan ahora a todas las organizaciones que puedan ser críticas de una u otra forma al gobierno actual a declararse "agentes extranjeros". Esto es casi como declararse espías-mercenarios de los extranjeros.

La organización realizó una serie de encuestas hace unos meses y preguntó a los rusos de ciudad y pueblo qué noticias veían en la tele.

La gran mayoría sigue las noticias de tele del Primer Canal, de Rossija 1 y de NTV Ruso. Un dos por cien de los rusos ve las noticias del canal Dozhd', que presenta algo de críticas. Un 5% ve Euronews en ruso...noticias ligeras de la UE. Un 1% ve BBC en ruso. Un diez por cien no ve tele. Algo que uno tiene que tomar en cuenta: el gobierno de Putin le ha hecho la guerra a Dozhd' desde hace tiempo. Muchos proveedores de televisión por cable lo retiraron de su oferta y ahora este canal es visto ante todo por Internet si se paga. En cualquier país pocas personas van a pagar por el derecho a ver un canal a menos que ya tenga un deseo muy grande de verlo. 

Tengamos en cuenta algo: pese a toda la autocracia que impera en Rusia, ese país está siendo gerenciado de una manera muchísimo mejor de lo que está siendo gerenciada Venezuela. Los rusos aun (aun) pueden surfear con bastante libertad en la red y ver esos canales como Dozhd', al menos si viven en la ciudad o tienen buena conexión de Internet. También pueden comprar un diario crítico como Novaja Gazeta, aunque este cueste el doble de lo que cueste un Izvestia. Pueden comprar los libros de Svetlana Aleksiévich, al menos si viven en una de las grandes ciudades o lo encargan en ozon.

Si hay algo que me ha llemado la atención en los últimos tiempos es la división entre mis conocidos en Rusia y los que están fuera: los que están en la Federación Rusa básicamente tienen muy poco interés en las noticias de política o son putinistas. Los que están fuera se interesan mucho más en seguir el acontecer político en Rusia y fuera, pero también tienden a ser más críticos del sistema que tiene su país de origen.




Cubans and Russians and the military in Venezuela


If there are two things I still find missing in the reports about Venezuela under the Chavista dictatoship are 1) the role that both Cuban and Russian secret services are playing in the land of Grace and 2) the way Maduro, like his predecessor, the caudillo Chavez, is trying to make the military take over the economy of Venezuela in the same way as it is done in Cuba

Let's face it: the day Venezuela's regime falls is the moment when the Cuban dictatorship starts to crumble as well. The moment Venezuela's regime falls is the time when Russians lose almost all of their clout in the American continent.

It is time for us to make these relations as transparent as possible, to discuss them publicly in Venezuela, to challenge time after time the role of these powers.

SEBIN, Chavista "intelligence" service: just a tool for narco generals and foreign powers
Here you can read an interesting article about how the average Cuban sees Venezuela. As for the average Russian, I can tell you: he is as badly informed. I will write a bit more about that in my next post.



Friday, 28 July 2017

For journalists who hate economics

OPEC barrel price evolution. In red: dollars. In blue: 1998 dollars
If you read in English and you want to learn how to do some real investigative journalism on Venezuela, you should read people such as Alexandra Ulmer, Keyal Vyas or Girish Gupta.

If you want something very superficial, you should read something like BBC news in English, particularly if the journalist is a native English speaker. It is really amazing how the British organisation can make news about Venezuela sound so trite.

We constantly hear and read sinking oil prices are the major cause of Venezuela's collapse. 

We can read about that on BBC here and here.

But this is highly inaccurate. Yes, prices do have a role to play on the hardships Venezuela is going through now. Still, a much more important reason for the misery is the sheer corruption and incompetence of Chavismo. This is something BBC journalists do not seem to grasp because they do not seem to take their time to learn about the long term evolution of Venezuela's economy and society. For them, it seems, there is not much time to try to understand what exactly were the conditions in Venezuela in 2007, in 1998, in 1992 and much less before that.

The BBC work in Venezuela resembles more or less like this: they interview a state employee, they interview some opposition economist or politician, they quote one, they quote the other and they do not care or are not given the time to do proper research, listen to more nuanced, more complex reports, try to understand at least the basics of how economies function. The way BBC reports on Venezuela I simply cannot imagine their journalists ever have taken a look of more than 1 second to a chart showing the evolution of life expectancies in several Latin American countries across decades or GDP growth in Venezuela since 1962 or even less trying to analyse what kind of things Venezuela was exporting in 1998 apart from oil and what it does now or what kind of education programmes there were in the sixties, eighties or now.

If you take a not too short sighted view of the matter you will soon realise oil prices now are still higher than they were in the late nineties, shortly before the military coup monger Chavez got elected...and yet living conditions now are considerable worse than back in 1998. The average price for a barrel of OPEC oil in 2017 is around 49.77 dollars. That is about 33.75 dollars of 1998. Back then Venezuela was getting less than 13 dollars for a barrel. Even if we accounted for population growth: Maduro's government should be getting more money than the government of Caldera II. What a lot of foreign journalists still fail to see is the sheer amount of corruption and utter incompetence that have thrived in the Chavismo years. Chavismo will probably make Mobutu's regime look like "nearly Swedish standards" on accountability.

Yes, for many decades the popularity of Venezuelan presidents has gone up and down according to oil prices. Oil prices enabled Chavez to have available more social programmes than what presidents had in the decade that immediately preceded him, when we had the longest oil recession. Still, the loss of popularity has more to do with the level of plundering that has taken place in Venezuela.




Tuesday, 11 July 2017

Venezuelas Referendum von 2017

Gestern sagte Nicolás Maduro, daß er sich Sadam Hussein ähnelt. Das sollte ein Witz sein, als er bei einer Veranstaltung der Militärpolizeit ihren Uniform anzog.

Die venezolanische Opposition organisiert ein Referendum am 16.07. Die Frage, die da gestellt werden, sind klar:

1) Lehnen Sie die gesetzgebende Versammlung ab, die von Nicolás Maduro ohne vorheriger Zustimmung des Volkes einberufen wird?

2) Verlangen Sie von den Streitkräften und allen Beamten die Beachtung und Verteidigung der Verfassung von 1999 und die Unterstützung der Entscheidungen der Nationalversamlung?

3) Stimmen Sie der Erneuerung der öffentlichen Gewalten gemäß Verfassung, der Durchführung von freien und transparenten Wahlen und der Bildung einer Regierung nationaler Einheit zu, um die verfassungsmässige Ordnung wiederherzustellen?

Der Wahlrat, der völlig dem Regime unterordnet ist, hat als Reaktion zu diesem von ihm nicht akzeptierten Referendum die Durchführung von 'Wahlübungen' am selben Tag angekündigt.
Die Militärs und Staatsbeamten werden in diesem Rahmen alles unternehmen, um das Referendum zu boykotieren.

Die Militärs, die seit immer in Venezuela die Wahlprozesse "bewacht" haben, werden nichts unternehmen, um die Regimekritiker - die große Mehrheit der Bevölkerung - bei det Durchführung des Referendums zu schützen. Ganz im Gegenteil, sie werden die Sturmabteilung des Chavismus bewaffnen. Überall im Land befürchtet man, daß die Paras Zivilisten angreifen, die teilnehmen werden am Referendum.

Die Chavistas werden sehr wahrscheinlich vor allem in den Provinzen gewaltsam werden. Da gibt es praktisch keine ausländischen Journalisten oder Diplomaten.

Venezolaner werden am Sonntag in der ganzen Welt gegen das Regime agieren. In Deutschland wird das Referendum in 16 Städten organisiert werden.

Hier mehr Infos auf Deutsch, auch über das Referendum in der BRD.

Wednesday, 31 May 2017

Children's foes


There is a new index about children's wellfare. Not surprisingly, Venezuela now offers children a worse standard of living than almost any other country in the Americas. Venezuelan children are now worse off than those in a lot of African countries.

That is very much unlike when I grew up in Venezuela's Caribbean.

This reports shows children are more likely to be murdered in Venezuela than in most American countries but for Honduras.

Venezuelan underaged girls are more likely to become pregnant than almost anywhere else, as I wrote already a couple of years ago.

Chavismo has to go away.

Sunday, 14 May 2017

The Chavista elite abroad


Venezuela was for most of its history a country of immigrants. Two periods stand up as big exceptions to this. The first was the war of independence and the second the long economic collapse that started to be felt in the nineties of the XX century and that is reaching increasingly terrible levels at this very moment.

Now there are Venezuelan communities in almost every country on Earth, something someone would nave found hard to believe 30 years ago. An awful lot of highly qualified Venezuelans live from Canada to Norway, from Argentina to Australia. Venezuelans are also emigrating by plane or bus and even in boats, like desperate Cubans, trying to reach Aruba, Curaçao and Bonaire.

But there are the other Venezuelans, the ones who have become very rich in the so-called Bolivarian revolution. When most Venezuelans have no access to dollars, the socialist boligarchs travel abroad in all luxury.

Venezuelans have decided to bug them. We could recently see on social media how the daughter of communist minister Rodriguez is approached by other Venezuelans in Bonti beach, Australia, and asked whether she doesn't feel something for what is happening in our country. The former defense minister gets caught in a restaurant in France and gets booed. Another former minister of Chavez has to get out of a restaurant in Doral, Florida, after Venezuelans recognise him and shout at him 'thief, get out'.

Bear in mind this: Venezuela has a foreign currency control that only promotes corruption.
If you are Venezuelan and you live in Venezuela you can only afford to travel abroad if you are richer than 99.5% of the population or someone abroad finances you.

Let''s see where boligarchs have been spotted abroad:

Former defence minister eating out in Paris, her children study there

Former minister Vázquez Orellana eating out in Miami

A well-known singer tweeted that the daughter of current defence minister Vladimir Padrino was spending some money in a posh area of Madrid

If you know of other cases, please let me know, preferably with a good url.

Saturday, 15 April 2017

Why is there no way Chavismo will accept democracy?

Bloody Pinochet gave up power and so did the racist Apartheid regime in South Africa. The communist governments in Poland and Czechoslovakia likewise accepted defeat and change at the late eighties. So: why can't Chavistas do the same? Wouldn't it be easier for them than for Pinochet's thugs? For instance, Pinochet's folk murdered several thousand civilians and most of the criminals felt they could come to terms with living in a society that might want to demand justice.

There are several reasons why i will be harder for top Chavista 'revolutionaries' to accept the arrival of democracy in Venezuela.

Firstly: many chavista honchos are deeply concerned they will be prosecuted and that there won't be any amnesty for them as there was for Pinochet's goons. Why would they think so? They did not throw thousands of people from helicopters as Pinochet's men did in Chile. Chavismo's well known crimes like the kilĺings during the coups of 1992 have already been brushed away when late president Caldera signed an amnesty that let Chávez and his accomplices take part in democratic elections and gain power in spite of the innocent blood they had spelt. Big chavistas have little to fear about being directly to the hundred or more cases where pro regime colectivos and soldiers killed civilians since 2003. And yet: there are probably some more crimes people do not know now about but that we will find about as soon as Chavistas lose power. It is hard to come up with an amnesty when the responsabilities  are still to be determined.
A lot of these Chavistas are, according to US authorities and other sources, involved in drug trafficking or simply in corruption involving many hundreds of millions of dollars -far more than what previous governments stole-. All corruption cases definitely sum up to over 30 billion dollars, as the FONDEN scandals clearly indicate. Because Chavistas pretended for so long to represent the poor and the amount of money they robbed they would be permanent targets of popular scorn. Even Romania, with its shortage economy, did not see such a crumbling economy in such a short time,

Secondly: Chavista honchos would have  very hard time abroad.
They cannot imagine their lives in places with such different cultures as Russia or China. Cuba is hardly an option: once Chavismo loses power in Venezuela, the Cuban dictatorship is bound to crumble sooner than later. Some Latin American countries like the Dominican Republic, Panama, Chile or Costa Rica could be offered for exile but even there big Chavistas would have a tough time given the large Venezuelan communities that would keep an eye on them. Maduro, Cabello,  Aissami, Rangel, Lucena and many dozens of others would not be able to keep dozens of bodyguards or expect Latin American governments to keep such numbers for them on a permanent basis in order to let them go shopping, visit restaurants and so on. Latin America is not Saudi Arabia.

Thirdly: the only place high ranking Chavistas can imagine themselves living is Venezuela but how could they feel remotely at ease being protected by a higly corrupt and incompetent army no longer under their control? The Chilean army, much more disciplined and less corrupt than the Venezuelan one, had to protect a few very bloody criminals apart from Pinochet, but these criminals were never as high profile and the transition took place before the mobile and social media era.

In spite of all this it is high time the opposition starts to make the thought excercise of what options within the context of international are there for these criminals .

The following is just a list of the top criminals who would prefer to let Venezuela bleed and burn before giving up power:

Nicolás Maduro and family
Chavez clan
Diosdado Cabello
Vladimir López
Tareq Aissami
Hugo Carvajal
Rafael Ramírez
Henry Rangel Silva
Clíver Alcalá Cordones

Bu there are many dozens of others

Sunday, 9 April 2017

Venezuela auf Deutsch schon wieder

Gestern hat Maduro wieder einige Sachen gesagt, die uns Venezolaner schon seit 1999 vertraut sind, die aber die deutschen Journalisten kaum übermitteln, wenn sie über mein Land sprechen.

Es ärgert mich zutiefst, wenn selbst die Sender ZDF und ARD, für die jedes Haushalt etwa 17 Euro Gebühren zahlen muß, die Positionen in Venezuela fast mit dem selben Wortschatz ausdrücken, die Maduro verwendet: sie sprechen ständig über die Opposition als Konservativen und die Regierung als Sozialisten. Das wäre, als ob man die Sprache der Linken benutzen würde, um alle außer ihnen zu beschreiben.

Erstens müssen wir klar stellen: die Opposition, die schon im Jahr 2015 die klare Mehrheit der Stimmen erhielt, besteht aus vielen Parteien. Nur eine bedeutende Partei, Primero de Justicia, ist etwas, was eher den Christdemokraten entspricht. Die meisten der anderen Parteien - und ja, wir haben niederländische Verhältnisse, was Parteizersplitterung anbelangt- sind Sozialdemokraten oder noch etwas links davon. Wenn man darüber hinaus die Stellung der Regierung zur Schuldentillgung oder Militärausgaben versus Geld für Gesundheit oder Bildung analysiert - kein deutscher Journalist scheint dazu Zeit zu haben- wird man Schwierigkeiten haben, die Regierung Maduros irgendwie mit dem Begriffvon Sozial in Verbindung zu bringen.

"Wenn eine Regierung von rechts die politische Macht nehmen würd, würden wir sie mit der bürgerlich-militären Macht wegputschen und wir würden die Revolution radikalisieren".

"Selbst eine Regierung, die durch manipulierte Wahlen wie die von 2015 an die Macht kommen würde, würde in einer Woche (gestürzt werden), denn dieses Volk würde rebellieren, wenn so eine Regierung mit ihrem Wirtschaftsprogramm kommen würde".
Die Opposition hat Ende 2015 trotzt allerlei Schikanen durch Regierung und Militärs eine klare Mehrheit erhalten, auch wenn seitdem die Nationalversammlung de facto fast völlig entmachtet ist.

Es wäre schön, wenn deutsche Journalisten unsere Lage ein bisschen besser erklären würden. Ich bin mir dessen bewusst, daß Venezuela in Deutschland nicht dasselbe Interesse erweckt als Russland oder Syrien, Ägypten oder viele anderen Länder, aber das Land verdient eine bessere Analyse als die, die sie jetzt von deutschen Medien hat.

Zur Zeit wird die Regierung Maduros alles unternehmen, um viele Regionalparteien verschwinden zu lassen und Schlüßelfiguren der Opposition hinter Gitter zu bringen - viele sind schon da-. Davon wird die deutsche Presse wahrscheinlich nichts berichten, sondern schon wieder was von "Konservativen haben in Venezuela x% der Stimmen erzielt und Sozialisten y und es gibt Proteste". Oder irre ich mich nun?

Venezuela, infinitesimal calculus and dictatorship

I have come to believe one of the strategies used by the Chavista regime is to let people get used to Venezuela sinking in chaos.
Both Venezuelan opposition people and journalists have been saying Venezuela is becoming a dictatorship since probably 1999.
And the fact it is doing so in slow motion does not make it more real.

Let's see.

2013
Venezuelan in US newspaper

and The Economist in 2016 talks about getting closer to military rule (although, actually, Venezuela had a primarily military-lead government since 1999.

The regime wants the world to get used to it by taking a bit more of freedom now, pretending to give back some of it the next day, collaborating with foreign charlatans who demand dialogue from the opposition even time after time and freeing some token opposition member while jailing two more.

Those who want freedom for Venezuela need to think how to break this trend. How to prevent people from accepting further abuses by the criminal forces of chavismo.


Sunday, 15 January 2017

Venezuela auf Deutsch, ARD berichtet

Ein Freund hat mich auf eine Sendung des deutschen Fernsehens zu Venezuela aufmerksam gemacht.
Sie wird heute Sonntag um 19:20 ausgestrahlt.

Also, Leute:

SO / 19:20 / DAS ERSTE
Weltspiegel
AUSLANDSKORRESPONDENTEN BERICHTEN
AUSLANDSMAGAZIN / D 2017



Thursday, 12 January 2017

The most preposterous attacks from a Thug's State


It is quite amazing to see how the world doesn't react to this:

2014-2015
SEBIN, the Chavista secret police, detained opposition member Rodolfo González accusing him of having explosives and weapons in preparation for a coup. González was found dead in his jail in 2015...apparently he hanged himself.

August 2016
SEBIN claimed to have caught opposition leaders Yon Goichochea and Carlos Melo with explosives. Yon is recepient of the Milton Friedman prize.

January 2016

SEBIN detained National Assembly deputy Gílber Caro stating he was carrying explosives. It did the same with councilmen Jorge Luis González of the Primero de Justicia party and Roniel Farías of Popular Will in the Bolívar state.

The regime also put Baduel back in jail and it is running a mock investigation to neutralize Capriles, governor in the state of Miranda.

Who on Earth do they want to convince that opposition leaders - not just minor figures - are carrying around explosives?

I wonder what Chavismo's fans in Europe, people like Wagenknecht in Germany 
She wants people to recognise Erdogan is a dictator but won't say the same thing about Maduro because he is "lefty"

You just have to read in El País how he was financed by Chavismo for so long and how often he appeared in Venezuela's State media to tell Venezuelans how much better they had it than Spaniards




















and Pablo Iglesias in Spain have to say about this.

There are over a hundred political prisoners in Venezuela now.

The minister of Interior in Venezuela is Néstor Reverol, a military indicted in a US court for drug trafficking.